Published On: Mon, Mar 23rd, 2020

Top Economists Predict Major Jobs Reduction In The Coming Months

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Coronavirus has been hurting the economic conditions of the world since its first case. Along with the businesses, the employees must be worried due to this as well.

It is being estimated that a large no. of people will be losing their jobs in the upcoming months and the final tally may be horrifying if the outbreak continues. 

Chief economist at Aberdeen Standard, Jeremy Lawson projected the unemployment rates to spike in the upcoming months “There’s just so much that we don’t know about how long the disruption to economic activity related to the containment of the virus will be. That does make forecasting these things very difficult,” said Jeremy Lawson,

“By the time you get to the April payroll number, which may be right at the deepest level of contraction, yes, those numbers are plausible certainly.”

While another economist projects the loss of jobs to reach five million mark in April alone. Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics said CNBC.

“We never imagined we’d write anything like this,” Sheperdson said in a note. “The shock will be so great that it will leave policymakers with no choice but to pass much more stimulus than is currently under discussion.”

Veronica Clark, chief economist at Citigroup predicts that the current scenario is just the beginning of a massive shakedown.

“If there is not a normalization of activity by mid-April (which looks increasingly unlikely), we would not be surprised to see job losses in the multi-millions next month,” Clark wrote.

Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard estimated a global recession during the outbreak.

“As socialization returns and shuttered businesses reopen, the economy will take on the look of a more typical recession,” Blitz wrote. “With a ‘regular’ recession in place, made less severe by the planned [$1 trillion] of fiscal spending, the unemployment rate will fall into mild recession territory, probably 6% by year-end. This will be the odd cycle, where the highest unemployment rate comes at the beginning.”

Josh Bivens, DOR at the Economic Policy Institute said, “If this response includes enough fiscal stimulus that is well-targeted and sustained so long as the economy remains weak, job loss will be substantially reduced relative to any scenario where policymakers drag their feet,” He said.

“Even with moderate fiscal stimulus, we’re likely to see 3 million jobs lost by summertime. Keeping this number down and allowing any job loss to be quickly recouped after the crisis ends should spur policymakers to act.” He added.

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